Sociocultural Models of Nuclear Deterrence
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Authors
Morgan, Geoffrey P.
Lanham, Michael J.
Frankenstein, William
Carley, Kathleen M.
Issue Date
2017-09
Type
journal-article
Language
Keywords
Computational modeling , Biological system modeling , Nuclear weapons , Security , Predictive models , Organizations , Stability analysis
Alternative Title
Abstract
Through the development of a computational sociocultural model, we demonstrate the potential utility of a rapid-modeling approach for exploring the dynamics of nuclear deterrence. We review the past literature, showing how our model is influenced by both the domestic politics and constructivist paradigm models of nuclear deterrence. Our model development process incorporates expert elicitation into a model featuring cognitively limited, perception error-prone, belief holding, and knowledge diffusing actors. Results from both an intellective and specific scenario were generated through running the model across various strategies and courses of action (CoAs). Third-party experts validated the model's short and long-term results and contribution to stakeholders exploring alternative CoAs. Work remains in validating this paper against empirical data sets and in automating the model construction process.
Description
Citation
G. P. Morgan, M. J. Lanham, W. Frankenstein and K. M. Carley, "Sociocultural Models of Nuclear Deterrence," in IEEE Transactions on Computational Social Systems, vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 121-134, Sept. 2017, doi: 10.1109/TCSS.2017.2727071.
Publisher
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
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Journal
Volume
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PubMed ID
ISSN
2329-924X