Pledge and Forget? Testing the Effects of NATO’s Wales Pledge on Defense Investment
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Authors
Becker, Jordan
Issue Date
2024-01-23
Type
Journal articles
Language
Keywords
Policy Relevant , NATO , International Organizations , International Agreements , Defense Economics , difference in difference , Nordic States , Coercion , defense spending
Alternative Title
Abstract
Do informal international agreements without coercive mechanisms affect states’ behavior? While scholars have long been interested in this question, answering it often poses empirical challenges, particularly in the arena of international security. By asking and answering a narrower question—Is NATO’s Wales Pledge on defense spending working?—I can empirically test the extent to which states have adhered to a public agreement without formal or coercive enforcement mechanisms. I argue that the Wales Pledge has led to higher spending because NATO the organization uniquely enables allies to influence one another’s defense planning, publicly and privately. I find support for this argument by interrogating disaggregated defense expenditures of NATO and EU members, and by comparing NATO allies Denmark and Norway with non-allies Finland and Sweden. Although the Wales Pledge has been maligned, it served its purpose by encouraging allies to spend more on defense, particularly on equipment modernization.
Description
Citation
Becker, J. (2024). Pledge and Forget? Testing the Effects of NATO’s Wales Pledge on Defense Investment. International Studies Perspectives
Publisher
Oxford University Press