Breaking the Ceiling on Risk Assessment: Dispositional Indicators of Risk Exposure (DIRE) Scale
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Authors
Shedler, Jonathan.
Fonagy, Peter.
Marin-Avellan, Luisa E.
Karson, Michael.
Shechter, Olga G.
Lang, Eric L.
Issue Date
2023
Type
Article
Language
en_US
Keywords
Alternative Title
Abstract
Current risk-assessment methods may be approaching a ceiling on accuracy.
The domain of personality represents a source of untapped information for
enhancing prediction not only of criminality but also of broadly defined
misconduct, including breaches of trust and other forms of non-criminal
insider threat in organizations. We describe the Shedler-Westen Assessment
Procedure (SWAP), a comprehensive method of personality assessment, and
the Dispositional Indicators of Risk Exposure (DIRE) scale, a psychometric
scale designed to harness implicit and explicit expert knowledge concerning
personality and risk. Study 1 examined the convergent validity of the DIRE
scale in a national clinical sample of N = 1,201 patients. DIRE correlated
significantly with a range of risk-related criterion measures, including global
maladaptive functioning (r = .64), employment trouble (r = .49), mental
instability (r = .34), criminality and violence (r = .46), and child/adolescent
antisociality (r = .53). Study 2 examined the prospective prediction of criminal
recidivism in a sample of violent offenders. DIRE was a significant prospective
predictor of criminal recidivism over a 1-year period (r = .37). We discuss
implications for risk assessment in both general and criminal populations.
Description
Citation
Shedler, J., Marin-Avellan, L. E., Shechter, O. G., Fonagy, P., Karson, M., & Lang, E. L. (2023). Breaking the Ceiling on Risk Assessment: Dispositional Indicators of Risk Exposure (DIRE) Scale. Managing Insider Risk & Organizational Resilience (MIROR) Journal, 1(1), 77–100. West Point Press.
Publisher
West Point Press
License
Journal
Volume
Issue
PubMed ID
DOI
ISSN
2832-5419
2832-5427
2832-5427